DALLAS — For those who have been reading my contributions to the past two Top 15 prospects lists, I've trained you (I hope) to expect a certain formula. First I meander around some, musing on a general topic related to the player in question and how they fit into the grand scheme of the system. Sometimes I go even bigger picture, waxing on the entire idea of prospect evaluation and things of the like. Then I break down the player in a formatted way, giving you all the vital information in capsule form.
Today we're breaking with that tradition because I want to try something a little different. Pulling back the curtain, whenever I go to write about a player, I'll read up on some things to confirm what I already know while seeing if there's more information out there. Included in my research this year is our list from last season, in an effort to gain some historical perspective.
Today's player, pitcher Jonathan Hernandez, didn't appear on the top 15 list. He just missed the cut, ranking in our honorable mentions. It turns out, though, that I wrote about Hernandez in those honorable mentions last year also. So this year, I'm going to show off what made him a fringe top 15er last season and discuss what changed to get him where he is now just outside the top 5.
2017: “Hernandez is finding his way onto lists like this because he’s shown flashes of talent. His fastball on a good night can reach 95-97, but don’t expect that much. He had a few good starts, but understand this is a young man who is still learning how to be a starting pitcher.”
At that point in 2017 (late February), Hernandez had made his stateside debut with Hickory in 2016 with 22 starts. Last season, after we published our list, he logged the exact same amount of starts with 22, but across two different levels in Hickory and Down East.
By the numbers, Hernandez had more success in Kinston with a lower ERA, lower opponent's average, and a higher amount of punch outs. Despite the walks and hits being higher than desired, it was a successful campaign for the righty who turned 21 in the middle of the year.
The progress showed up this year, with Hernandez blazing through the Carolina League striking out 77 and walking only 17 in ten starts with the Woodies (that's legitimately what they want to be called take it up with them I was Team Jeff).
That action was enough to earn Hernandez a Frisco promotion, where he's been since early June. Since then, Hernandez has slowed down considerably. The strikeouts are down, the walks are up and the ERA...let's not talk about the ERA. There's also been concerns about his appearance on the mound, being unable to be consistent with his release causing his release point and location to be erratic.
While that's likely pucker-inducing for the folks at 1000 Ballpark Way, there's minimal concern needed at this point in time. The jump to Double-A ball is difficult, in just about every case the hardest any prospect will make on their road to the show. The talent is better, the lights are brighter, and it just takes time for non-supernova prospects to adjust.
You'd prefer Hernandez to succeed immediately, but he's shown the ability to recover when facing adversity in the past and has had success when repeating time in a league which he might very well do next season. The Frisco bump appears to be another step on that ride.
2017: “Expect him to start in Hickory again, with a trip to Kinston with the Wood Ducks a feasible end game for 2017. If he sees Frisco before 2018, you know things are going right. With time, patient coaching, and growing into his grown man body, Hernandez is a player who likely finds his way into the top 10 ranks next season.”
Not to toot my own horn, but this is pretty much on the money. Hernandez did spent all of last year in North Carolina, showing considerable growth to the point where he's knocking on the top five door of almost every major prospect list for Texas as he navigates through the Texas league.
You'll likely see Hernandez in the majors this season as a September call up, since he's on the 40 man already. He might even get in a game or two, or perhaps they'll just give him a look at what it's like to suit up in a big league park.
Some major league coaching and influence will only help the 22 year old develop towards his full potential. While you can look at his Frisco numbers and groan, those reflect more a young man adapting to new surroundings than a prospect bust.
A couple final notes:
- Hernandez has four pitches, two that are legit plus and two that need work. The fastball and curveball are money already, which will help carry Hernandez while he continues work on a changeup and slider. If he could develop both, visions of a high level starter should dance in your head. A more realistic idea is for one of those two pitches to become plus, and he settles into a good middle of the rotation type pitcher. Nothing wrong with that at all.
- There is some speculation that he might not end up starting at all. Being able to reach back and hit 98 paired with a good breaking ball has some evaluators thinking he'll end up as a winning piece out of the bullpen. Also lending to that thought process is concern about his mechanics being repeatable which can lead to suspect command, as mentioned above.
I'll include some video so you can see for yourself. The first is from the always insightful Tepid Participation from Spring Training 2017:
The other is from this year in Frisco before a game:
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Will Jonathan Hernandez continue to prove doubters wrong and make the adjustments needed in the upper levels of the minors? Let Samuel know your thoughts on Twitter @thesamuelhale.
