TEXAS, USA — There’s an old adage that says the more things change, the more they stay the same. And according to our new poll, that applies to politics in Texas as well, as support for Republicans remains strong across the board heading into the November elections.
"Texas Decides" is a joint effort between the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (THPF) and TEGNA Texas stations WFAA, KHOU, KENS and KVUE. It draws on a survey of 1,172 likely Texas voters that was taken between September 6, 2022, and September 15, 2022. It has a confidence interval of +/- 2.9%. The report reviewed the vote intention for the November 2022 Texas elections.
The election will be held Nov. 8. Early voting starts Oct. 24.
Part 1 of this poll, released here, takes a look at the major statewide races across Texas in the coming election. Parts 2 and 3, which will be released later this week, will focus on the Hispanic population's opinions of the candidates and on culture war issues.
The poll found that Republican incumbent Greg Abbott leads Democrat Beto O’Rourke by seven points (51% to 44%) among likely voters. Among most likely (almost certain) voters, the lead grows to 10 points (53% to 43%). Just 1% of voters in both categories (likely/most likely) says they’ll vote for Libertarian Mark Tippetts and Green Party candidate Delilah Barrios.
"Gov. Abbott’s strength among rural and Anglo voters continues to bolster his intransigent structural support in the 2022 race for Texas Governor,” THPF CEO Jason Villalba says of the poll's results. "While O’Rourke has shown himself to be a worthy and hard-working adversary, unless there is a marked shift in the composition of the November electorate, Governor Abbott will remain the political and thought leader of Texas politics. Only new voters will be able to shift the tide."
Perhaps the poll's most significant finding in the gubernatorial race is the fact that voters seem hardened in their choices, with little room for movement come November. In fact, 95% of all likely voters who say they’ll vote for Abbott tell us they are “certain” about their vote choice. On the other side, 94% of all likely voters who will back O’Rourke say they are “certain” about that choice.
And when you break down support among race, Abbott holds a nearly two-to-one advantage over O’Rourke among white voters, with the incumbent being a 63% choice to his challenger's 33%. O’Rourke has a strong advantage with Black voters, however, up 79% to Abbott's 16%. The support margin is closer among Hispanic voters, with 53% intending to vote for O’Rourke and 39% for Abbott.
Lieutenant Governor's race
In the race for Lieutenant Governor, Republican incumbent Dan Patrick (48%) holds a six-point lead over Democrat Mike Collier (42%) among likely voters. Patrick also enjoys an eight-point advantage over Collier among the most likely (almost certain) voters, holding a 50% to 42% lead there. Meanwhile, 2% of likely voters and 3% of most likely (almost certain) voters intend to support Libertarian Shanna Steele.
In terms of voters who are “certain” about their vote choice in the Lieutenant Governor's race, 95% says they’ll vote for Patrick and 91% say they’ll vote for Collier. In other words, only 5% and 9%, respectively, say they might change their mind.
Attorney General's race
In the Attorney General election, Republican incumbent Ken Paxton leads Democrat Rochelle Garza by five points (47% to 42%) among likely voters and by seven points among the most likely (almost certain) voters (49% to 42%), with 3% of both likely and most likely (almost certain) voters intending to vote for Libertarian Mark Ash.
In this race, only 8% of likely voters and 6% of most likely (almost certain) voters remain undecided.
Farther down the ballot
In the Texas Comptroller's race, Republican incumbent Glen Hegar leads Democrat Janet Dudding by 8 points (46% to 38%) among likely voters and 10 points among most likely (almost certain) voters (49% - 39%). Just 3% of voters in both categories say they’ll back Libertarian Alonzo Echevarria-Garza.
In the race for Land Commissioner, Republican Dawn Buckingham enjoys an eight-point lead over Democrat Jay Kleberg (46% to 38%) among likely voters and 12 points among most likely (almost certain) voters (50% to 38%). In this race, 2% of likely and 1% of almost certain voters say they’ll support Green Party candidate Alfred Molison.
Republican incumbent Sid Miller (48%) has a seven-point advantage over Democrat Susan Hays (41%) in the election for Agriculture Commissioner among likely voters. Miller's lead grows to 11 points (51% to 40%) among almost certain voters.
In the race for Railroad Commissioner, Republican incumbent Wayne Christian leads Democrat Luke Warford by seven points (44% to 37%) among likely voters and 10 points (47% to 37%) among most likely (almost certain) voters. Here, 4% of likely and almost certain voters say they’ll support Libertarian Jaime Diez, while 1% of both groups say they’ll vote for the Green Party’s Hunter Crow.
Politician favorability in Texas
According to the "Texas Decides" poll, the three political figures viewed most favorably by likely Texas voters are Gov. Greg Abbott (52%), Sen. Ted Cruz (49%) and former President Donald Trump (49%).
The three political figures viewed most unfavorably by likely Texas voters are Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (67%), Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (60%) and Vice President Kamala Harris (58%).
See all of the results of "Texas Decides" here or below: