HOUSTON — This is a big one. The last of the Silver Boot Series for 2023 has come, but more importantly, this is the series that will go a long way towards pointing both Texas teams toward their fate in September.
This is a series that could lay out whether the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers are fighting to keep a Wild Card slot or fighting to reclaim the American League West lead. Yes, the Rangers will play the West leading Seattle Mariners twice in the last week of the season, but the meaning of those two series changes drastically with the outcome of this series.
Houston down the stretch
Being in this position was not what the Astros had in mind. The defending World Series champs weren’t expected to have as easy a time retaking the division crown as in previous years, but the incredible start out of the gate by the Rangers certainly wasn’t predicted, which threw a wrench in their coronation.
Ultimately, the Astros have never really hit a sustained stride in 2023. There has been no winning streak longer than eight and no run of winning series longer than four, but Houston hasn’t had a stretch of terrible baseball either. They’ve been consistent and they’ve won at the right times, which enables them to sit in a tie for second place with Texas with four weeks remaining.
At the trade deadline, obviously, the big news out of Houston was the trade they made to reacquire Justin Verlander after a few months stay in New York. Verlander was with Houston for six seasons, from 2017-2022, winning two Cy Young awards and a World Series championship with the team in 2017. While he was injured during last year’s postseason run for the ‘Stros, the impact that Verlander had on the organization was clearly enjoyed, as Houston traded away two top prospects to bring the future Hall of Famer back for this year’s stretch run.
And Verlander’s presence has been truly welcomed. Aside from the 40-year old Verlander, the rest of the Astros’ rotation has left lots to be desired. Framber Valdez, one year removed from being the No. 2 man behind Verlander, had a rough July and a roller coaster of an August.
Over four starts in July, Valdez gave up 17 runs. He followed that up with a no-hitter against Cleveland in his first start in August. That was followed by giving up 21 runs in his next three outings, before throwing seven scoreless against Detroit.
Verlander, though, has been on his game in his return to Houston. Before being roughed up by the Yankees over the weekend, Verlander, in five games in his reunion with Houston, has put up a 2.79 ERA with nearly a 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The biggest factor that has helped Houston remain among the top clubs in the big leagues has been their offense. In May, when the team posted their highest winning percentage, the Astros had a run differential of +27. This past month, when they were finally able to break through against the Rangers’ ceiling in the AL West, they put up a +44 run differential.
This was buoyed by a couple of extreme blowouts, notably a 17-4 win against Detroit and a 13-5 win against Boston the next day, but the likes of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Alex Bregman all hit over .300 in the month of August.
In short, the Astros are getting hot at the right time – the same time the Rangers have become ice cold.
The matchups
Game 137: 3:05 PM CT - RHP J.P. France (10-5, 3.49 ERA) vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (9-6, 4.16 ERA)
Game 138: 7:05 PM CT - RHP Framber Valdez (10-9, 3.38 ERA) vs. TBD
Game 139: 7:05 PM CT - RHP Justin Verlander (10-7, 3.34 ERA) vs. TBD
The development in the first game of the Minnesota Twins series, which saw Max Scherzer throw six scoreless innings on just 88 pitches but then get pulled from the game due to forearm tightness, has the Rangers’ rotation in flux.
The marquee matchup on Wednesday was going to pit former teammates Verlander and Scherzer against each other, but, while manager Bruce Bochy claims his ace won’t miss his next start, rarely has a “little” forearm tightness ever been a thing.
Tuesday’s starter for Texas is also listed as TBD. That would have been Dane Dunning’s spot in the rotation. After giving up three runs in four innings against the Mets in his second consecutive short outing, Dunning might be given a mental and physical day to reset himself. The other potential, though, is that Nathan Eovaldi could be ready to return to the rotation.
Eovaldi, who has been out on the injured list since July 27th with his own forearm strain, threw a bullpen session on Friday and reportedly came out of it in good shape. Eovaldi, who is 11-3 on the season with a 2.69 ERA, stepped up in a huge way when Jacob deGrom was lost to Tommy John surgery. His addition to the Rangers’ rotation would be huge, and in a matchup against Valdez, who is still dangerous, despite a roller coaster few weeks, having Eovaldi back would be a welcome sight.
Valdez’ last start against Boston was an outing where he picked up the win, but surrendered four runs (two earned) in six innings. He’s riding a streak of two quality starts in a row, but both times that the Rangers have faced Valdez this year, they tagged him pretty good for five runs in April and six runs in July.
The only known matchup is the one for Labor Day, when J.P. France will pitch for Houston opposite Andrew Heaney for Texas. France, the 28-year old rookie righty, has been remarkable while filling in for the Astros’ injured rotation pieces.
France has put up a 3.49 ERA, and in the last two months, has only had one start where he gave up more than three runs. That was against Boston, where France only lasted 2 ⅓ innings and gave up 10 runs on 11 hits.
Heaney, if Eovaldi is returning on Tuesday, might be making his last start of the season before being pushed to the bullpen. Heaney’s last start, against the Mets, was one of his best outings in August, giving up no runs on five hits in 5 ⅔ innings. It was his longest outing since going 5 ⅔ innings back on August 6.
Eovaldi’s return and Heaney’s potential move to the bullpen would both lengthen and strengthen the Rangers’ pitching staff across the board. While it may not solve the issues that Texas has been having lately with hitting with runners in scoring position, it could serve to make smaller leads a little more comfortable.
Regardless of how the juggling of the pitching staff shakes out, this series ranks up near the top as one of the most important that Texas will play all year.
Do you think the Rangers will grab a series win against the Astros in the Silver Boot finale? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
