ARLINGTON, Texas — Facing the Houston Astros already twice in the span of a week and a half might have been perceived on paper to be the Texas Rangers’ first big test of the season. But the Astros have been in a downward spiral since the start of the season and have sunk to last place in the division.
Texas, meanwhile, coming off a stretch of 17 games in 17 days before their first day off since April 4 on Monday, was able to maintain its hold on first place, but only just barely. Now, they welcome the team – the Seattle Mariners – immediately behind them in the standings to Arlington for an early showdown for pole position in the AL West.
Seattle Mariners (11-11, 2nd Place AL West) @ Texas Rangers (12-11, 1st Place AL West)
Previously, for Seattle…
The Mariners are coming off a great week of baseball. They swept the Cincinnati Reds at home, then took two of three from the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. That stretch of six games, during which they scored 35 runs, has been the biggest factor in helping them get to second place. Prior to that, the Mariners had lost four consecutive series against Cleveland, Milwaukee, Toronto and the Chicago Cubs to begin the season. In short, the Mariners are getting hot just in time to face the first place Rangers.
What had been the cause of the Mariners’ struggles early in the start of the season? A slow start for their superstar Julio Rodriguez didn’t help. Prior to the series against the Reds, Rodriguez was slashing .186/.238/.203. He is still looking for his first home run and has struck out nearly 30% of his plate appearances.
That said, he has been a catalyst for this recent hot stretch for Seattle – in the six games between Cincinnati and Colorado, Rodriguez has slashed .464/.483/.536.
Overall, the Seattle offense has struggled to get going, starting with the top of the lineup. Their bats rank among the bottom of the league and scoring runs was the issue that plagued them a season ago when they finished a game out of the final AL Wild Card spot.
On the pitching side, their starters haven’t been quite as strong as advertised either. Until the Reds’ series, Seattle was being outscored 72-49, with their rotation being rocked the third time through a lineup, with opponents slashing .284/.325/.468 as the game reached the middle innings.
The relievers will be something to watch this series. Yes, both teams are coming off a day of rest on Monday, but the Mariners had a split doubleheader in Colorado on Sunday, with one game going to extras. Over 19 innings of baseball, the M’s used seven relievers. Even for a bullpen that ranks among the league’s best with a 2.69 ERA, Seattle burned through a lot of arms ahead of their trip to Arlington.
Regardless, the M’s are riding a bit of momentum, which is not something the Rangers can say as they open a homestand having gone 5-5 in their last ten games.
What to watch for
Game 24, 7:05 PM CT - RHP Logan Gilbert (1-0, 2.33 ERA) vs. RHP Dane Dunning (2-1, 3.91 ERA)
Game 25, 7:05 PM CT - RHP Bryce Miller (3-1, 1.85 ERA) vs. RHP Jon Gray (0-1, 3.15 ERA)
Game 26, 1:35 PM CT - RHP Luis Castillo (1-4, 4.40 ERA) vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (0-1, 6.35 ERA)
Texas will send Dane Dunning, Jon Gray, and Andrew Heaney to the hill against the Mariners in this three-game set. Dunning was last seen last Wednesday in Detroit, giving up one earned run in five innings on 97 pitches. Dunning has struggled with command in a couple of his starts, including walking four on the road trip; he was, however, able to limit the damage. Now he will be tasked with getting this series off to a good start.
Gray, meanwhile, was most recently a surprise entrance out of the bullpen in Atlanta on Saturday night. Manager Bruce Bochy, trying to limit the exposure of some of his high-leverage arms, used Gray as a reliever on what would normally be a side session for him in his routine.
Gray ripped through the Braves, striking out 4 in 1 ⅔ innings of relief and perhaps sparked the idea of a return to the bullpen when other starters join the rotation. In his last start, Gray was also excellent, going six innings of one-run ball while striking out seven so the Rangers won’t be in a hurry to move Gray out of the rotation.
Andrew Heaney, arguably the weak link in the Rangers’ rotation at the moment, had his best outing of the season thus far in his last start on Friday night, giving the Rangers five innings of three run ball in a stretch where Texas needed length out of Heaney after he had been inefficient in his first few outings.
The Mariners will put Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo up against the Rangers during this early test. Each of the upcoming M’s pitchers had stellar outings last time out, with Gilbert and Miller being two of the most consistent starting pitchers for Seattle so far.
Gilbert in particular has been a bedrock early and he went 6 ⅔ innings against the Reds, giving up just one run. The last time Texas saw Gilbert, he held them to two runs in the opening game of the last series of the 2023 regular season. For his career, Gilbert sports a 2.88 ERA against Texas in ten starts.
Sophomore hurler Bryce Miller threw six innings of one run ball against the Reds himself, his first run given up in his last two outs. But in two starts against the Rangers last year, Texas tagged him for 13 runs and 14 hits total. Luis Castillo, the usual ace of the staff and 2023 All-Star, earned his first victory of the season with a solid seven-inning, shutout performance against the Rockies. Castillo gave up four runs in each of his first three starts, but was sharp against Colorado.
An injury-riddled Rangers team is slowly getting closer to full strength as they saw the return of first baseman Nathaniel Lowe during the series in Atlanta and will see Jonah Heim reactivated from the bereavement list to begin this series. Setup man and October hero Josh Sborz could come off the IL during this series, as well. With Lowe, Heim, and Sborz back in the mix, Texas will be a step closer to having their full, expected roster on the field.
Meanwhile, Evan Carter will look to keep momentum going, coming off a two-hit performance against Atlanta, including a long home run. And in further good news, the Rangers expect Max Scherzer to begin a rehab assignment on Wednesday as he aims to join the rotation in early May.
This is the first time that these two teams have met since the final series of the 2023 regular season, where Seattle spoiled Texas’ pursuit of the AL West crown. Now Texas is seeking a repeat World Series trip, and will strive to maintain a hold on first place against their division rivals.
Do you think the Rangers will come out of this series with their AL West lead intact? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
