DALLAS — The Dallas Cowboys will meet the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday in a game that has big implications for both teams. After starting their season 1-5, the Colts have gone 6-1 in their last 7 to get above .500 and climb back into the playoff hunt in the AFC.
If that sounds like a familiar story, that's because it's quite similar to the Cowboys who started out 3-3 in their first six games and followed that up by going 5-2 in their current stretch to take a commanding division lead in the NFC East.
Dallas now finds itself within a game of clinching the division for the third time in five seasons. The Colts are still currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in and need a win against Dallas as they try to hunt for a Wild Card berth and that 6th seed in the AFC.
The Cowboys lead the overall series 10-6 and have a three-game winning streak against Indy dating back to 2006. Considering that the Cowboys have a little wiggle room, and the Colts will be playing for their postseason lives, this one looks far more important for the home team. Don't count on the Cowboys to relax out there until the division is officially theirs, however.
To make sure they leave Indy with a win and the NFC East, it all begins and ends with quarterback Dak Prescott. Prescott had a very up and down game against the Philadelphia Eagles last week, especially through three quarters of play. The fumbles and interceptions were the main culprit for Dak's uneven performance.
The Cowboys don't usually win when Prescott turns the ball over. They probably can't count on winning another one if he gives the ball away several times again.
However, when the game was on the line and the lights shined the brightest, Prescott showed why many analysts call him a “gamer”. From the 4th quarter through overtime, Prescott completed 17 of 20 passes for 234 yards and three touchdowns while setting a career high with 54 passes thrown and 455 yards passing. That total was the most yards thrown by a Dallas Cowboy in a win in franchise history.
Protecting the ball and getting it into the hands of the two best weapons will be a point of emphasis. Obviously those two being Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper. Over the last six weeks, the duo has combined for a remarkable total of 1,612 yards of offense and 11 touchdowns.
Dak and the Cowboys will be counting on those two players to finish carrying them to a division championship. Dallas does need to find a way to get Michael Gallup involved and connect when the opportunity presents itself. Gallup has missed out on a potential touchdown catch in three straight weeks, he should catch one soon if the trend continues.
For the Colts defensively, they don’t allow 100-yard rushers at all and have only surrendered 100-yard receiving games to two players this season. The Houston Texans had two 100-yard receivers in their first matchup against Indy but it's been a clean sheet for Indy since.
The Cowboys will have their work cut out for them if they wait to ruin that streak. That's especially true since a familiar face will be tasked with trying to stop them. Indianapolis' first-year defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has had a firsthand look at what Dallas likes to do on offense. Eberflus spent seven years in Dallas as an assistant under current defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli and has seen what this offense is capable of accomplishing. The only difference now is he has to plan for how to slow down Cooper.
Defensively, the Cowboys must work to prevent Andrew Luck and the Colts from enjoying home cooking. At Lucas Oil Stadium this season, Indianapolis has averaged 31.5 points per contest. That feels very reminiscent to Week 11 when Dallas faced the Falcons who up to that point had averaged 32 points per game until the Cowboys held them to one offensive touchdown in a three-point victory back in November. They would love a repeat of that outcome.
This year, Dallas has yet to give up the Colts' home scoring average on defense in any one game. The 28 points scored by the Tennessee Titans on Nov. 6 remains the highest total Dallas has allowed. Keeping the Colts under their average will be a focal point in the matchup.
As of Friday afternoon, T.Y. Hilton’s status is still up in the air for the game. He looked to be a game time decision with an ankle injury. Hilton's presence alone would help the Colts if he can go for this matchup as he provides Luck with a favorite receiving option.
The Cowboys will be without Zack Martin for the first time in his career. Rookie Connor Williams will take his place at right guard. Williams started the first seven games of the season at left guard but lost his job to Xavier Su'a-Filo when he went down with an injury of his own back in October.
There's also the possibility that Sean Lee could return for Dallas on Sunday. Lee is listed as questionable and hasn't played since the Tennessee game after suffering a hamstring injury.
Ultimately, this is a matchup between two teams having similar seasons but with differing methods for arriving to this game. Despite a slow start to the year, the Cowboys are right where they want to be. The Colts also had their troubles to begin the season and they're still trying to claw their way into the playoffs as a result.
The Cowboys have won their last two road games and the Colts come in with a four-game win streak in their own building so something will have to give.
My prediction: Cowboys 23, Colts 17 and an NFC East crown.
Do you think the Cowboys can complete their comeback division championship run in Indy or will the celebration have to wait another week? Make your predictions to Patrick on Twitter @DraftCowboys.