DALLAS — Home price growth in Dallas-Fort Worth is holding stronger on a year-over-year basis than other Texas metros and the nation as a whole, according to a new report from CoreLogic. But home prices in DFW are falling from their peaks at a faster pace than the national average.
Single-family home prices in the Dallas-Plano-Irving metropolitan division increased 15% year over year in October 2022 compared to October 2021. That compares to a 16.6% year-over-year increase in the metro division in October 2021 vs. October 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices in DFW’s eastern division declined by 0.64% compared to September 2022, according to the CoreLogic Home Price Index, released Tuesday.
Home prices in the Fort Worth-Arlington metro division increased 14% year over year in October 2022 compared to October 2021. That compares to a 15% year-over-year increase in the metro division in October 2021 vs. October 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices in DFW’s western division declined by 0.13% compared to September 2022, according to the Irvine, Calif.-based property data-crunching firm.
U.S. single-family home prices increased 10.1% year over year in October 2022 compared to October 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.1% compared to September 2022, according to CoreLogic.
Like many areas across the country, the Dallas-Fort Worth housing market experienced a price surge over the past two years. Tight inventory and strong demand created fierce competition among buyers, boosting house values faster and further than ever before.
But a series of interest rate hikes this year, the rapid run-up in home prices, a more negative general economic outlook and other factors have dampened buyer demand.
A similar pattern is playing out in Texas’ other major housing market, with Central Texas being especially affected.
Single-family home prices in the Austin-Round Rock metro area increased 7.5% year over year in October 2022 compared to October 2021. That compares to a 11.3% year-over-year increase in the metro area in October 2021 vs. October 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices in Austin-Round Rock declined by 2.5% compared to September 2022, according to CoreLogic.
In the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metro area, single-family home prices increased 12% year over year in October 2022 compared to October 2021. That compares to a 13.3% year-over-year increase in the metro area in October 2021 vs. October 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices in Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land declined by 0.41% compared to September 2022.
In the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro area, home prices increased 12.3% year over year in October 2022 compared to October 2021. That compares to a 13.8% year-over-year increase in the metro area in October 2021 vs. October 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices in San Antonio-New Braunfels declined by 0.34% compared to September 2022, according to CoreLogic.
CoreLogic’s latest index also measured the change in prices from their peak in the Spring.
Home prices in the Dallas-Plano-Irving division dropped by 2.6% from their peak in June. The Fort Worth Arlington division saw prices deflate 2% through October from their peak in the Spring.
The state’s biggest plunge from its peak through October was in the Austin-Round Rock area, where home prices are down 8.5% from their Spring highs.
Prices in the Houston area are down 0.5% from their peak, and San Antonio is down 0.34%.
On a national basis, annual U.S. price growth is expected to taper off in the coming months, perhaps moving into negative territory by spring 2023, but then slowly edging up into single digits as the year progresses, CoreLogic predicts.
“Following the recent mortgage rate surge above 7%, real estate activity and consumer sentiment regarding the housing market took a nosedive,” said Selma Hepp, interim lead of the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic.
Annual U.S. home price gains are forecast to slow to 4.1% by October 2023, CoreLogic’s forecast says.
“While some housing markets have seen significant recalibration since the Spring price peak and are likely to post losses in 2023, further deteriorating for-sale inventory, some relief in mortgage rate increases and relatively positive economic news may help eventually stabilize home prices,” Hepp said.
