NEW ORLEANS — In the tropics: The wave moving our way for Friday and this weekend is not expected to develop into a tropical system. A very clear picture on water vapor shows the spin in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, but not at the surface. If this was a surface "spin," there would certainly be concern for potential development. However, regardless of development, by Friday and through the weekend, scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain will move across SE Louisiana. A total 2-5+ inches of heavy rain are possible. So we will be on the lookout for any flooding potential, including street flooding.
Chantal has weakened into a tropical depression. It remains in the far north Atlantic and is not expected to affect land. It is expected to dissipate on Friday.
There is a cluster of showers and storms over the Bahamas has become a little better organized today and is now a trough of low pressure. The trough will move to be just off the east coast of Florida by this weekend. Then they will curve NE and stay away from the Carolina Coast. There is just a low chance (30%) for development during the next 5 days. This is not a threat to the Gulf.
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2019 Hurricane Season Outlook
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 10 to 17 named storms. It says five to nine of them will become hurricanes and two to four of those would become major hurricanes with 111 mph winds or higher.
Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season predictions, is forecasting 14 named storms, 7 to become hurricanes and two to hit major status.
IBM's Weather Company calls for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three majors. Accuweather calls for 12 to 14 named storms, five to seven hurricanes and two to four major storms.