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Trump leads in latest state survey, but Texas Hispanics prefer Biden

“Despite Biden’s nearly 10% lead, neither presidential candidate has yet to completely lock down the Texas Hispanic vote," said the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.
Credit: AP
In this combination photo, president Donald Trump, left, speaks at a news conference on Aug. 11, 2020, in Washington and Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks in Wilmington, Del. on Aug. 13, 2020. The conventions, which will be largely virtual because of the coronavirus, will be Aug. 17-20 for the Democrats and Aug. 24-27 for the Republicans. (AP Photo)

DALLAS — Pres. Donald Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden by five percentage points in a new survey of likely voters in this state, but Texas Hispanics prefer Biden, according to the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation and Rice University’s Baker Institute.

Among all voters in the THPF survey, Trump got 49.5% of support from likely voters and Biden got 44.1%.

But Texas Hispanics said in this poll that they would vote for Biden by 47.4% to Trump’s 37.9%.

“Despite Biden’s nearly 10% lead, neither presidential candidate has yet to completely lock down the Texas Hispanic vote. For a presidential candidate to compete in Texas, clearly, Hispanics are the key constituency,” said THPF President Jason Villalba.

Until now, most public polling in Texas showed either Biden slightly ahead or the race as a dead heat.

“The results of this data show you can’t take the Hispanic vote for granted,” said former state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, a member of the THPF Board of Directors. “If you want our support, you better work for it.”

On Thursday night, Biden formally accepts the Democratic nomination for president. Republicans hold their national convention next week.

But there was another curious result from this survey. 

Texas Hispanics with a four-year college degree back Trump over Biden by about 10 points; 48.4% to 38.7%. 

The majority of Hispanics with a high school degree or some college support Biden by a similar margin.

In addition, second-generation Hispanics and those families who only speak English at home support Trump over Biden.

“This poll reinforces the fact that Hispanic voters are not monolithic and have a unique perspective on this race vis a vis Hispanics in other states. There is a clear gender gap among Hispanic voters, as well as differences based on age, religion and educational attainment,” Villalba added.

African-Americans overwhelmingly backed Biden over Trump in this poll – 82% to 6%.

Other questions in the survey showed that almost half of likely Texas voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the coronavirus pandemic and his response to African-American deaths from encounters with police. Voters are almost split on Trump’s immigration policies.

The poll was conducted over a two-week period in August and interviewed 846 Texas voters.

The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation is a nonprofit, nonpartisan group that analyzes the opinions and behaviors of Hispanic Texans.