Rangers in dire straits but they're not finished yet

dire
ˈdī(ə)r/
adjective

1. (of a situation or event) extremely serious or urgent.

2. "dire consequences"

This.

finished
ˈfiniSHt/
adjective

1. (of an action, activity, or piece of work) having been completed or ended.

2. "a preparatory drawing for the finished painting"

Not this.

In case you missed yesterday’s (fictional) award-winning entry, this space serves to take a look at the highest swing of Win Expectancy (WE)of each of the Rangers’ post-season games. Yesterday, we had to honor of examining a Troy Tulowitzki extra base hit in the early goings. That wasn’t fun. But, today we get to…

… examine a Troy Tulowitzki extra base hit in the early goings. Dang. This is probably what I get for Great Grandpa Ursery building that failed nutria farm on the old graveyard isn’t it?

Anyway, for the second straight day, things were going pretty fairly OK for the Rangers early on. Yu Darvish brought an extra MPH or two to his fastball, and the first three Blue Jays sat down without issue. The fourth Blue Jays hitter was Jose Bautista, and he lead off the second inning with a walk, taking the Rangers’ WE down to 46.3%. Two two-out Ranger baserunners in the bottom of the first had temporarily lifted it to 54.2%, but Rougned Odor’s inning ending groundout brought it to an even 50%.

Then, Darvish fell behind Tulo 2-0. This kind of became a theme, as the other three homers (oh, yeah, spoilers: Darvish allowed four home runs in a game for the first time in his professional career) on the day all came with the count even or in the hitter’s favor. Darvish seemed to hit his spot, lower-in corner at 95.4. It just… seemed to also be the spot Tulo was waiting on.

The score was 2-0, and that 50% mark was down to 32.6%, and for the second day Tulo gave the Rangers a back breaker they wouldn't recover from.

Let’s look on the bright side, though; Ian Desmond contributed a sum of .158 Win Percentage Added (WPA)! Now, the bleak side of how the game might have changed had he scored in the seventh inning rather than being thrown out at home on a groundout fielder's choice.

WE was more bullish on the Rangers’ chance late than the score might have lead you to believe; even upon bringing the score to 5-3, Texas was still only holding a 13.5% chance to win. That peaked at 21.1% when Beltre lead off the ninth with a double; unfortunately that was the peak of the late rally by the Rangers.

Now this series heads North with the Rangers down 2-0 and facing Toronto's young ace Aaron Sanchez. Texas will counter with Colby Lewis.  I’d ask you how you feel about that, but the last two days have shown us, clearly, that baseball does not, and has not ever, cared about your feelings.

 

Joe cares about your feelings, however. Follow him on Twitter @thejoeursery.

Copyright 2016 WFAA


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