How quickly Game 1 got away from the Rangers

DALLAS - Are Anchorman references at all still acceptable in our culture? Because that… well… that escalated quickly. Or, really, deescalated, unless you’re a Blue Jays fan, in which case I don’t know what to tell you, you should feel great, about baseball at least, I guess.

If you’re a Rangers fan, well, I guess I would just link you to  this box score and say follow that rabbit hole for the rest of that series and the series that followed (yes it’s the 2011 ALDS Game One gee great you figured it out).

So, what we’re doing here is examining the biggest Win Expectancy event of each Rangers post-season game. It’s fun, normally. This one is not going to be fun.

2016 ALDS Game One’s third inning is pretty much a nightmare re-imagining of the 2015 ALDS Game Five’s seventh inning. Good we got that out of the way!

Cole Hamels started off the inning well enough, getting Melvin Upton Jr. to fly out to right (thanks, Shin-Soo Choo!) before walking #9 hitter Ezequiel Carrera. If you have ‘Walking the #9 hitter’ as a bad, bad sign in your office pool, then congrats. It was a bad, bad sign. Hamels got the second out quickly enough, getting Devon Travis to foul out. But, the meat of the Blue Jays order were seeing Hamels the second time, and his control was fleeting.

At the beginning of the innings, Texas had a 52.6% shot of winning, being home and tied. The walk brought it down to 49.8%, and the foul out put it back up to 53%.

Then, the roof started falling. A Josh Donaldson double brought it to 40.9%. Jose Bautista singled in Donaldson to drop it to 30%. Russell Martin (who, it should be noted, has stitches in his pinky) walked, 27.8%.

Then, kerplunk, we hit bottom. Troy Tulowitzki took a 2-2, 92 MPH fastball to center; maybe a play could have been made but it wasn’t, and it dropped in, and three runs came across, and Texas was down 5-0, looking at a 10.4% Win Expectancy, a -17.4% drop in one swing of the bat.

I don’t know about you but I’m pretty sure it’s all over, because one thing that has been made clear is Texas is pretty devoid of veteran leadership, resiliency, and #nevereverquit-ness (end sarcasm font). And it’s not like it’s all bad news, Alex Claudio might be able to confound the Blue Jays over a few high leverage innings later on in the series, and the offense is probably going to generate more than the four baserunners it got today in an inning or two before the weekend is over. But, as for yesterday, there just wasn’t much good to be found. 


Follow Joe on Twitter @thejoeursery to find out what Sam Dyson does on his days off.

Copyright 2016 WFAA


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