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In Olympics, the great haul of China will continue

02:25 AM CDT on Monday, August 25, 2008

Column by KEVIN SHERRINGTON / The Dallas Morning News | ksherrington@dallasnews.com

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BEIJING – High above the Bird's Nest, fireworks splattered the night's black canvas.

Drummers pounded, dancers shimmered and daredevils swarmed the stage props.

And for all you lip-sync conspiracy theorists: Not only that, the flags fluttered on an artificial breeze, too.

Still, the closing ceremony made for a nice exclamation point on what Jacques Rogge, the IOC's president, called an "exceptional" Olympics, and certainly a symbolic one.

The story of these Games was not Michael Phelps or Usain Bolt or pinwheeling gymnasts. The story was the host. From the spectacular opening ceremony to the somewhat subdued finale, China held center stage.

Olympics

2008 Summer Olympic Games
Aug. 8-24, Beijing, China

Multimedia: 2008 Summer Olympics

Wallpaper: Nastia Liukin

Blogs: Olympics | neigborsgo.com

Columns: Hairopoulos | Townsend | Sherrington | Horn

Official site

More Nastia Liukin | More Olympics

"The world has learned about China," Rogge said, "and China has learned about the world."

Nobody runs an Olympics like the Chinese, who moved heaven and earth and the smog that nearly choked the life out of the Games.

The sun came out, venues sparkled, the buses ran on time.

Perfect.

This is what happens when you have 1.3 billion people on 24-hour call. You could say the Games were overstaffed. Everywhere you looked, a half-dozen volunteers milled about looking for something to do with another dozen helping them do it.

China overran the gold medal stands, too. Get used to it. Peter Ueberroth has bad news for those scoring at home.

"China's team will do even better in the London Games than they have in Beijing," the USOC chairman said. "That's not a popular opinion, but look how far and fast they've come since '84.

"They have dedicated athletes and a high degree of discipline."

Not to mention backing by a government that likes the idea of winning.

Our Colorado College professor, Dan Johnson, predicted China would beat his economic model, and he got that right. He said the U.S. would put up the most medals with 103 and China would lead in golds with 44.

Actual count: U.S., 110 medals, 36 gold; China, 100 medals, 51 gold.

"On the flip side, Russia and Germany have both ended up well below our estimates," Johnson writes.

"Perhaps there are stories in their athletic teams or management to document?"

Perhaps. Vladimir Putin, get the gulag ready.

The days of Russia serving as the United States' chief Olympic antagonist may be over. Russia's gold medal count has declined in the last three Olympics, from 32 to 27 to 23. Meanwhile, China's has improved from 28 to 32 to 51. Even given the home-field advantage, China's progression is remarkable, if not surprising.

The nation has tremendous resources, chiefly its people. The totalitarian government may have restricted Internet access and stifled all forms of protest for these Games – 77 applications filed; none granted – but a close-up of China's citizenry revealed a society in transition.

Grim-faced soldiers in white gloves stood at attention under McDonald's umbrellas; sleek sedans zipped past grizzled peddlers on heavy-laden bikes; a teenage boy with a basketball under his arm and "Dallas" on his chest looked for a game.

The homogenization of China is not a recent development, nor is its burgeoning athletics success. But the rate of progress in both areas is certainly startling.

In the '84 Games, the Chinese won 32 medals, 15 of them gold. Both were paltry totals, considering the absence of Soviet-bloc countries. But just look at them now.

Prediction: If they ever master the concept of team sports, there will be no catching them.

For that matter, London will have a hard time matching China's legacy in 2012.

But every country has its charms, starting with its people. After the first grueling day of competition in the decathlon, Great Britain's Daniel Awde said he was awakened by his alarm clock and thought, "Bloody hell, what's that noise?"

When people ask what I like about the Olympics – and this was my eighth – I tell them this is the reason: American athletes almost never say "bloody hell."

TOTAL MEDAL PREDICTIONS
China exceeded the total Olympics medals predictions by PricewaterhouseCoopers and Colorado College professor Dan Johnson and student assistant Ayfer Ali. The rundown:
Johnson-Ali PWC Actual
Country No. Country No. Country No.
U.S. 103 China 88 U.S. 110
Russia 95 U.S. 87 China 100
China 89 Russia 79 Russia 72
Germany 66 Germany 47 Great Britain 47
Japan 37 Australia 41 Germany 46

GOLD MEDAL PREDICTIONS
Colorado College professor Dan Johnson's predicted China would lead the race for gold medals in Beijing. The United States and China exceeded his projections. His predictions and where those countries ended up:
Prediction Actual
Rk., Country No. Rk. No.
1. China 44 1 51
2. United States 33 2 36
3. Russia 28 3 23
4. Germany 18 5 16
5. Japan 16 8 9
6. Hungary 10 12 3
7. Italy 8 9 8
8. Poland 6 14 3
8. Korea 6 7 13
8. Bulgaria 6 23 1
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