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Armed Forces Bowl preview: Cal vs. Air Force11:30 a.m. Mon., ESPN01:21 AM CST on Monday, December 31, 2007
Air Force wins if ...
It repeats the success it has enjoyed all season long. The great thing about a run-oriented offense is that it chews up clock as well as yardage. If the Falcons can avoid mistakes, possess the ball and keep the Cal offense waiting nervously on the sideline, they have a chance.
California wins if ...
Colleges
Armed Forces Bowl: It plays like the team everybody thought it would be. After five games, the Golden Bears were on the verge of the No. 1 ranking before a heartbreaking loss to Oregon State. The offense has struggled since then, with the Bears finishing the season in a 1-6 funk. But the talent remains.
When Air Force runs
The triple options remains a staple of the Falcons, as it was under former coach Fisher DeBerry. Only Navy averaged more yards rushing than Air Force's 298.5. Chad Hall is the go-to back in a balanced offense. Cal allows nearly 152 rushing yards, ranking 57th nationally. Edge: Air Force.
When Air Force passes
Falcons quarterback Shaun Carney can be an effective passer – when he does throw it. Carney averaged just 16 attempts and is mobile enough to escape the rush. Air Force lost two of the three games in which he threw more than 20 times. Cal's pass defense has allowed 16 TDs and has recorded 10 interceptions. Edge: California.
When California runs
Justin Forsett was one of the few bright spots for the Golden Bears when everything started collapsing. Forsett ranked second in the Pac-10 and 19th nationally in rushing at 116.9 yards a game. Forsett runs behind a good line led by all-conference junior center Alex Mack. Edge: California.
When California passes
Quarterback Nate Longshore struggled during the team's late-season slide. In the team's last six games, he had nine TD passes and 11 INTs. He suffered harsh public criticism, prompting concern from coach Jeff Tedford about "piling on." Receiver DeSean Jackson was limited by injuries after early Heisman hype. Edge: Air Force.
Special teams
Cal's DeSean Jackson is a potential game-breaker and had one memorable punt return for a TD against Tennessee. If he's close to 100 percent, he could be interesting to watch. Air Force's Ryan Harrison, a Keller product, possesses a big leg. He averaged 43 yards a punt and kicked a 57-yard field goal. Edge: California.
Intangibles
Maybe the long bowl break will help Cal refocus. Plus, the Bears were steaming after ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit picked an Air Force blowout. Air Force has overachieved under first-year coach Troy Calhoun and seems far more motivated about its Fort Worth appearance. Edge: Air Force.
KEYS TO THE GAME
Touches for Hall
Air Force's Chad Hall went from another good college back to one of the most dangerous all-purpose threats in college football. He ranked 16th nationally in rushing (117.9 yards a game) and was especially effective down the stretch. Hall averaged 179.6 yards in the final seven games this season. When he ran for 100 yards, Air Force was 6-0. Add 48 receptions, return duty and the Falcons' use of creative formations.
Forsett's homecoming
California's Justin Forsett played two years at Arlington Grace Prep before heading to Berkeley, where he patiently waited for his chance. He didn't become a starter until this season but has produced 3,080 career rushing yards and proved himself a worthy successor to tailbacks J.J. Arrington and Marshawn Lynch.
Who wants it?
California's meltdown was one of the puzzling events in a crazy season. Injuries played a part, as did a competitive Pac-10. But to go from a likely No. 1 ranking to plummeting from the Top 25 represents a monumental collapse. The challenge is different for Air Force, which will be facing the most athletic team it's encountered all season.
SPORTSDAY PICKS
Chuck Carlton
Cal 35, Air Force 30: Logic says California's season can't continue to spiral.
Tim MacMahon
Cal 34, Air Force 27: Cal WR DeSean Jackson has a big game before declaring for the NFL draft.
Jean-Jacques Taylor
Cal 35, Air Force 17: Cal has too much speed and big-play ability for the disciplined Zoomies.
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