ELECTIONS '06 SAN ANTONIO – Republicans in South Texas say they're confident U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla will win an eighth term in Congress, but political experts say the race could be close.

FILE 2004/AP

Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla has to negotiate a more Hispanic district to win.

The district was redrawn last week to fix a violation of the Voting Rights Act.

Mr. Bonilla, 52, represents Texas' 23rd District, which was at the center of a legal fight over whether the voting power of Hispanics was diluted by a pro-Republican Texas congressional map engineered in 2003 by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in June that the district, which stretches from San Antonio to the Texas-Mexico border and out to far West Texas, failed to protect minority voting rights.

Last week, a three-judge panel issued a new map, altering the lines of five districts and restoring some Hispanic voters to the 23rd.

"If there were no incumbent, it goes Democratic for sure, probably a Hispanic Democrat," Nathaniel Persily, a law professor and political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, said of the redrawn 23rd District.

"The question is whether the power of incumbency and unique circumstances will work in Bonilla's favor."

Those circumstances include a special election on the same day as the Nov. 7 general election, with at least two Democrats planning to run against Mr. Bonilla.

Supporters of Mr. Bonilla said he isn't worried.

"Henry's a very competitive person," said Frank Guerra, who's known Mr. Bonilla 20 years. "The hotter the race gets, the better he gets. When the heat is on, Henry is at his best."

Under the new map, Mr. Bonilla's district includes the heavily Hispanic and Democratic neighborhoods of south Bexar County, but that's also partly San Antonio, where his mother still lives.

"It's clearly heavily Hispanic, but they haven't had an opportunity to vote for a Republican of Henry Bonilla's caliber," said Bonilla spokesman Phil Ricks.

Before the Texas Legislature redrew the lines in 2003, Mr. Bonilla's support among Hispanics was slipping.

The redrawing shifted some Hispanics in the border city of Laredo into a neighboring district to give Mr. Bonilla an edge over a Democratic candidate. He won re-election in 2004.

In the new 23rd District, 61 percent of the voting-age population is Hispanic, compared with 51 percent in the former district.

"I can assure you that no matter who runs in this election, no one will outwork me anywhere in the district," Mr. Bonilla said.

Democrats plan to try.

The 23rd "is an opportunity district, one in which a hardworking, qualified Democrat has a real opportunity to take over that district," said Amber Moon, spokeswoman for the Texas Democratic Party.

"The Hispanic community now has more of an opportunity to select the candidate of their choice, who is not Henry Bonilla."

Ciro Rodriguez, 59, a former congressman, and Rick Bolanos, 57, have declared their candidacies, and others could emerge.

Mr. Persily said too many candidates could split the Democratic vote, leading to a Bonilla victory. Mr. Bolanos said he's aware of that possibility but said he would "absolutely not" bow out.

"I've not seen him [Mr. Bonilla] this excited since he first ran for Congress," said Mr. Guerra, who is helping with the campaign.