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Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac takeover to have mild impact on Dallas area

07:31 AM CDT on Tuesday, September 9, 2008

By ERIC TORBENSON and BRENDAN M. CASE / The Dallas Morning News

As one of the few survivors of the nation's mortgage meltdown, North Texas' home market doesn't stand to gain nearly as much from the federal takeover of national mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as other parts of the country. But housing experts say every little bit helps.

The taxpayer-backed intervention revealed Sunday helped lower long-term interest rates, soothed investor fears about further mortgage woes and sent local homebuilders' shares soaring on Monday.

Still, experts said it won't immediately slow rising default and foreclosure rates that continue to undermine credit markets.

"It's a small net positive for our market," said D'Ann Petersen, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. "But I still think we have a ways to go."

Long-term mortgage rates for a 30-year loan dropped to near 6 percent Monday from 6.25 percent last week, and mortgage watchers said they could go even lower. That alone should stimulate new buyers and encourage mortgage refinancing, experts said.

"What we really need is for more people to get back to work and be able to afford homes and for people to be able to refinance and get their finances back in balance," said Craig Jarrell of Pulaski Mortgage Co. in Dallas. "We've been lucky that we're surviving this mess a lot better than the rest of the country – this program is just icing on the cake."

The key to the federal bailout may be its success in attracting continued foreign investment in mortgage-backed securities that had fueled domestic housing market growth, analysts said. Knowing there's a willing market of potential buyers for new mortgages they write could encourage banks to lend more to would-be homeowners.

"A lot of the problem stems back to the secondary mortgage market – this could provide some stability there," said Ted Wilson, a partner at Residential Strategies Inc., a Dallas-based research and consulting firm.

If the bailout program helps ease even some of the higher lending standards banks have imposed on mortgage applicants, it will help the region, he said.

Some feel lending standards aren't likely to change much as risk-weary banks are requiring substantial down payments, good credit and proof of income just to start a mortgage process.

"The old standards are now coming back into play," said Gary Akright of Dominion Mortgage Corp. in Dallas, who feels the federal support will help the local market.

Most mortgage pros such as Mr. Akright said Monday that homeownership will probably return to its status as a reward for fiscal prudence instead of what had become a perceived birthright for anybody with a checking account.

Despite feelings that North Texas has been spared from the housing meltdown, a report Monday showed pre-owned sales in August were off 18 percent from last year, and prices fell another 3 percent.

According to North Texas Real Estate Information Systems Inc. and Texas A&M University's Real Estate Center, the region has 6.5 months of inventory, though market watchers say it's all relative. "Miami has 30 months," Mr. Jarrell noted.

Market watchers such as David Brown of Metrostudy, a housing market research firm, predict that the D-FW market might rebound as soon as the second half of next year as inventories improve. "We will have gotten through a full year of working through this more restrictive market" by then, he said.

That would be good news for locally based builders such as Centex Corp., whose shares rose 10.3 percent to $18.38, and D.R. Horton Inc., whose shares rose 12.6 percent to $14.11, in Monday trading.

The market as a whole also was up Monday, as investors bet the bailout would help buoy the overall economy. The Dow Jones industrials gained nearly 300 points.

As for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, concerns about their solvency forced the government's hand, said Richard Fisher, president and chief executive of the Dallas Fed.

"We concluded that the capital of these institutions was too low relative to their exposure," Mr. Fisher told an audience in Austin on Monday, according to Bloomberg News. The capital the companies did have "was of low quality," he added.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don't originate mortgages but rather buy them on the secondary market. That provides essential liquidity for banks and attracts new money for potential homeowners.

Then there's the potential cost, with the U.S. Treasury standing ready to inject a total of $200 billion into the mortgage giants. Texas taxpayers will help pay, even though the state is far from the main sources of housing woes.

Of course, the very health of the U.S. economy is at stake, government officials and analysts say.

"As citizens of the United States, we are going to be asked to foot the bill for losses made by private investors who made bad business decisions," said Jim Gaines, an economist at Texas A&M's Real Estate Center. "It doesn't matter if you're from Texas, New York or California. The government is coming in and saying the private sector has messed everything up – let's bail them out."

etorbenson@dallasnews.com;

bcase@dallasnews.com

What could happen next

The federal takeover of the two mortgage giants affected several areas. Mortgage rates, which fell to nearly 6 percent on Monday, are expected to decline more. Fannie Mae shares fell to 73 cents while Freddie Mac shares tumbled to 88 cents.

Home prices: Mortgage rates matter in persuading people to start looking for a home, so any stabilization there can only help. Still weighing on home prices, aside from the overall jobs picture, may now be the number of homes for sale.

Investors: While it is not clear whether stockholders in Fannie and Freddie will be wiped out entirely, the Treasury did say that the entities "will no longer be managed with a strategy to maximize common shareholder returns."

Taxpayers: The bailout could end up costing taxpayers tens of billions of dollars. For now, U.S. officials are trying to emphasize the temporary nature of the takeover and minimize the possible risk to taxpayers.

National debt: The takeover could lead to an increase in the national debt – to $15 trillion, up from just under $10 trillion now – if things don't work out. The two companies own or guarantee more than $5 trillion in mortgages.

SOURCES: The New York Times; Los Angeles Times; The Associated Press

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