Even though the wind died down on Monday afternoon, there was still a bit of a bite to the air.
Peak winds hit 53 mph during the predawn hours as the arctic front blasted through, but as of midafternoon Monday, gusts were down to 33 mph.
The dewpoint has plummeted to zero and below across much of North Texas, so bone-dry air is now firmly in place. Watch out for extra-potent static electricity discharges on Monnday and Tuesday!
We remain precipitation-free this week, but a disturbance in the Bering Sea is still very much alive, and is still on schedule to arrive next week on February 3 and 4. And there is still decent evidence that it comes in negative tilt.
Why is the tilt important? Two reasons:
A negative tilt disturbance is the strongest orientation a disturbance can have.
A negative tilt tends to make air pressure at the Earth's surface fall very fast, and that acts like a magnet to draw Gulf moisture back into Texas.
We must must must get that Gulf moisture back and replace these below-zero dewpoints with 50s and 60s again. If we don't have the gas to put in this strong engine that's coming next week, all we'll get is wind (and fire).
So keep your fingers crossed for the negative tilt (or at least a zero-tilt), and we may just be able to break out the widespread rain again. But it is still more than a week away, so nothing is set in stone, but the stat method has it up to 60 percent probability.