Where did the bitter cold, ice, snow, and single digit temps go!? 70s Saturday and 70s likely again this afternoon. Is it spring already?
No. We just live in Texas.
But with these spring-like conditions also comes the threat for some spring-like thunderstorms across parts of North Texas this afternoon into this evening. Today will feature a good deal of cloud cover with some spotty showers possible into the early afternoon. As a cold front starts to move through North Texas, some thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of that cold front across the eastern half of North Texas mid to late afternoon.
Timing and location
Around 3 to 6 p.m., scattered thunderstorms are possible in the eastern half of DFW. This means not everyone in North Texas sees storms, and not everyone in DFW sees storms today.
Best chances will be along and east of a line from McKinney to Dallas to Waxahachie. From 6 to 8 p.m., any storms will move east of DFW, but eastern areas of North Texas (Greenville, Terrell, Corsicana, Athens) could see storms. After 8 p.m., all storms will have moved east of North Texas and into East Texas.
There is a threat for some storms to be strong to severe this afternoon and evening. Timing and locations for severe chances are the same as the timing and locations for storms mentioned above. Simply, any thunderstorm could become strong to severe, but most will not. Overall severe threat is low. Widespread severe storms are not likely, but some are possible. The highest severe threat will be from strong to damaging wind gusts with any severe storm. Some hail is possible with stronger storms as well. The tornado threat this afternoon and evening is low, but not zero. We're more concerned with a damaging wind threat, but any severe storm that has its act together could produce a brief tornado.
What about the western half of North Texas?
A totally different forecast is in store compared to the eastern half of North Texas especially this afternoon. Roughly along and west of a line from Denton to Fort Worth to Cleburne, storms are unlikely later today. Some spotty showers and clouds are possible through midday, but storms are unlikely. In fact, clouds will clear from west to east through the afternoon as a cold front pushes through the area. This front won't really cool temps too much as highs in the 70s are still likely.
What the front will do is bring dry and gusty weather to these areas this afternoon and evening. This will cause high fire danger for the western half of North Texas.
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for areas along and west of a line from Jacksboro to Mineral Wells to Stephenville to Commanche for this afternoon and evening. Outdoor burning or doing any activity that causes sparks is highly discouraged across western North Texas today. Any fire that starts will spread quickly.
Behind our cold front today, cooler and drier air returns to North Texas. This is no Arctic Blast, so we won't be locked in the deep freeze as you head back to work or school tomorrow. But it will be chilly in the morning with temps in the 30s and 40s. However, with plenty of sunshine, highs will make it to around 60° by Monday afternoon. Once again fire danger will be high across the western half of North Texas Monday afternoon.